First of two online excerpts froms "Elections, Part IV: The future of Canada." See also "Another election issue: Freedom of speech," http://catholicinsight.com/online/political/article_720.shtml.

          The previous three installments of "The future of Canada," in February, March, and April, were a preparation for the drawing of conclusions about what we Catholics and other Christians want to see happen in our country. Politically speaking, that means we must know what we want our government to do, as opposed to letting the media speak for us.

          For this May issue, we posit two essential demands Canadians must set before the politicians: face the demographic disaster; and face the mess you have made of freedom of speech and religion by legislating equality for the homosexual lifestyle.

          In section A, we bring the reasons why we should elect only pro-life politicians. Readers will notice that these reasons are all practical, economic, reasons. If Canadians will not accept the word of God, maybe they will wake up when they think about our communal future.

Canada: A dying nation

          Ottawa-The latest Canadian census figures released March 13, 2007, confirm what pro-life, pro-family Canadians have been saying for a long time: ours is a dying nation. Successive years of anti-life and anti-family policies promoted by governments at all levels are manifesting their devastating consequences. Yet, our political leaders continue to evade the real reasons behind the demographic collapse.

          The first response to this decline must be that of stopping further abortions. This must become an election issue for all Canadians.

An election issue: Stop abortions

1.     THE NUMBERS

          The birth rate hovers at a record low level of 1.5 children per family, when the rate just to replace the current population would be 2.1. Canada's population grew by 5.4 per cent since the previous census five years earlier; however, fully two-thirds of that (1.2 million people) was due to one of the world's highest rates of immigration. It is forecast that immigration could become the sole source of population growth by 2030, although earlier projections placed the time frame in the area of 2015-2017 (CTV.ca, April 28, 2006; Toronto Sun, Mar. 14, 2007).

Immigration is not an elixir of youth

Yvan Guillemette and William Robson

National Post

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

          Canada's large baby boom and subsequent baby bust, combined with impressive improvements in life expectancy, mean that Canadian society is aging rapidly. Because immigrants are, on average, younger than the resident population, analysts often suggest that immigration might slow this aging down - a kind of elixir of youth. However, this superficially attractive idea does not survive an encounter with the actual numbers involved.

          Our analysis shows that even if we applied ethically dubious age restrictions on newcomers, immigration will not appreciably slow the coming shift in the dependency ratio.

Quebec

         Quebec continued a 40-year downward trend, seeing its share of the Canadian population drop to 23.9 per cent. Between 1959 and 1971, the province - gripped by the "Quiet Revolution" - went from having the country's highest birthrate to its lowest. Even socially liberal political leaders there are expressing alarm over the developments.

          "We have a significant demographic problem in Quebec, like in many industrial societies," said Carole Theberge, provincial minister for families. "So we absolutely have to work hard to create a favourable environment for young families to want to have children . We need a lot of people" (CTV.ca, Mar. 13, 2007).

          The provincial government has attempted to address the crisis with measures such as a new child benefit, a more generous insurance plan for parental leave, and more affordable daycare. But at the same time, it continues to sanction and encourage the abortion of at least 31,000 preborn Quebecers annually, out of a population of seven million. These are individuals who could have played a major role in restoring Quebec as a prosperous and vibrant society.

Canada and the U.S.

          Canada's birth rate has fallen significantly behind that of the U.S., which - thanks to greater religiosity and a large Hispanic population - enjoys a healthier rate of 2.0 children per family. In Canada, experts cite "more contraception, career women who delay marriage and babies . and a divorce rate of almost 50 per cent" for the lack of children.

          In the U.S., by contrast, greater religiosity means more emphasis on a traditional family structure, with men as the breadwinning heads of households and women primarily as nurturers of children.

          A study conducted by Phil Morgan, a Duke University sociologist, asked Americans a number of questions, including the value they place on religion - from "very important" in their lives, to "somewhat important," to "not at all." The difference in family size between respondents who say "not at all" and "very important" is one child, he says of the correlation between religiosity and birth rates. "So it's huge" (CBC.ca, Mar. 13, 2007).

          In Canada, however, Catholics and Protestants are having children at a rate (1.57) in keeping with the population as a whole (LifeSiteNews, http://www.lifesite.net/ldn/2006/aug/06080303.html). The overall average age of first maternity, meanwhile, has risen steadily, from 27.2 years in 1970 to 27.8 in 1990 and 29.3 in 2003 (Statistics Canada: Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada 2003 and 2004).

          Even immigrant women are not immune from the Canadian anti-child culture - Statistics Canada reports fertility rates among foreign-born women start to decline soon after they arrive in Canada and eventually reach those of women who were born here (The Daily, Dec. 22, 2003).

          Please note that while there is some mention of contraception (of which the report authors obviously approve), there is dead silence about abortion. Surgical abortions kill at least 110,000 pre-born Canadians a year for a total of over three million since 1969.

Immigration is not the solution

          Speaking at an Institute of the Marriage and Family conference last year, historian Ian Dowbiggin of the University of Prince Edward Island said Canadians are only slowly waking up to the policy implications of our dismal birth rate. He argued that immigration alone is unlikely to solve the looming problem of an aging population. By 2017, there will be more people in Canada over the age of 65 than under 15.

          He warned that the aging population will create pressure for a rationing of scarce health resources and possibly the advent of legalized euthanasia, either through physician-assisted suicide or voluntary lethal injection (WorkPermit.com, Oct. 2, 2006). A great many people believe that the government owes them the best possible care, including the latest technologies and scientific advances. In a few years, they will be bitterly disappointed.

2. EFFECTS

Demands on health care

         Increasing demands are already being made on the health care system due to the aging population. The Ontario Health Quality Council reports that one in three Ontario residents is currently fighting a chronic disease and the government must act urgently before it has a full-blown crisis on its hands. Asthma, arthritis, diabetes and heart failure are among the ailments needing more attention.

          Almost four in five Ontarians over 65 have at least one chronic disease and, of them, 70 per cent have two or more conditions. A staggering 50,000 new cases of Type 2 diabetes are diagnosed in Ontario every year (Globe and Mail, Mar. 26, 2007).

B.C. health care's 'very, very scary' future

Globe & Mail

February 15, 2007

          B.C. Health Minister George Abbott refers to them as the killer slides. The picture they paint is so powerful the minister admits he has become much more focused on his own health.

          He is referring to future health costs. The first graph Mr. Abbott brings out is one showing per capita health expenditures by age group in British Columbia. It costs a lot to start out in this world, as it turns out. The annual health costs for British Columbians age 1 and under is $6,623. After that, the costs fluctuate between an average of $868 a year up to age 14, to $1,667 annually between 40 and 44.

          Then the costs start to move. Between 50 and 54, they jump to $2,103 a person annually. Between 70 and 74, they rise to $5,745; between 80 and 84, $11,651; and, when a person is 90 and over, the price tag goes up to $22,074 a year.

          "Now you look at this graph," the minister said. "This is the one that makes you worry."

Physician shortage to worsen, OMA warns

Aging boomers, retiring doctors mean Ontario faces staffing 'crunch' in future

Rob Ferguson

Toronto Star

February 28, 2007

          Ontario's doctor shortage remains a serious problem despite recent signs of improvement, the Ontario Medical Association warned yesterday in calling for more government incentives to recruit and retain physicians.

Dwindling pensions

         The financial health of struggling private pension plans has declined markedly and the outlook looks even worse, according to senior federal regulators who have warned federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty. They say 72 per cent of private pension plans were less than fully funded as of June 2005. The situation is such that some pension plans may be given permission to reduce benefits previously promised to retirees (Hamilton Spectator, Mar. 27, 2006).

          The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan reports it has only 88 per cent of the money it needs for payouts expected to retired teachers over the next 70 years. Benefit payouts are already double current contributions, and the ratio of 1.6 working teachers to each retiree is down drastically from four to one just 15 years ago (Hamilton Spectator, Mar. 27, 2007).

Demographic crisis

          A June 2006 Senate report entitled The Demographic Time Bomb warned that not enough measures are in place to deal with the financial and employment implications of an aging population. Canadians 65 and older are expected to increase from 3.9 million in 2000 to 7.8 million in 2026, while those over 80 will nearly double during the same time period.

          The report noted that Canada's birth rate is 40 per cent below the level needed to prevent long-term population loss. "There are measures that could be implemented to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of demographic change," added the report, but then it focused on tactics such as lower personal income tax and an unlimited retirement age (Canada.com, June 15, 2006).

          Nota Bene: Again, this report is absolutely silent about the disastrous effects on the Canadian demographic scene of widespread contraception, abortion, and sterilization, all publicly promoted and lauded the during the nineteen-sixties.

Emptying classrooms

          Emptying classrooms, school closures and longer bus rides are the reality of education in Ontario as the system grapples with a "no kids" bombshell, says University of Toronto demographer David Foot.

          Ontario Education Minister Kathleen Wynne acknowledged that 50 to 60 of Ontario's (no doubt this pattern also holds true in all the other provinces) 72 school boards are looking at declining enrollment. A total of 117 schools were closed in the province in 2004 and another 83 in 2005. In Thunder Bay, ON, the number of students has plunged to 11,500 from 16,000 just eight years ago (Nat. Post, Feb. 17, 2007).

          While in urban areas new schools are still being opened in expanding suburbs, the downtown Toronto public school board is considering plans to cut more than 100 education assistants, lunchroom supervisors and vice-principals in the face of declining enrollment in 2007 alone (Globe and Mail, Feb. 28, 2007).

Declining student numbers risk country's future, group warns

Caroline Alphonso

Globe & Mail

February 28, 2007

          Canada's higher-education system could shrink by as many as 100,000 students in the next decade unless the country moves aggressively to recruit more low-income and aboriginal students, a new report warns.

University boom headed for bust

Despite record demand, schools urged to prepare for low enrolment

Kevin Libin in Calgary

National Post

February 26, 2007

          A report released last week by the Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation warns that, despite record demand for spots in the country's 266 postsecondary institutions, schools must prepare for a shortage. The number of high school graduates will apex in 2011, and "within 20 years, the pool of typical post-secondary-age Canadians will be substantially shallower than it is today," reads The Price of Knowledge, 2006-2007: Why Access Matters. By 2026, there will be 300,000 fewer college-age Canadians, the study predicts.

Problems posed by increasing immigration

          Increasing the number of immigrants pouring into Canada to try to make up for our population shortfall would be placing increasing demands on the public purse for their settlement. Already experts say that many immigrants have trouble finding jobs, have lower incomes than native-born Canadians, and quickly become alienated (Globe and Mail, Mar. 14, 2007).

A deal worth just under $1 billion instituted by the former federal Liberal government is giving Ontario $3,400 for each immigrant to the province until 2011. Nonetheless, Ontario has been struggling to meet the needs of immigrants, which include housing, career and employment assistance, skills upgrading and language training. About 265,000 immigrants are expected to come to Canada in 2007 (Tor. Star, March 18, 2007).

Then-federal minister of citizenship and immigration, Joe Volpe, announced in November 2005 a $700 million "investment" over five years to make improvements in the immigration system (WorkPermit.com, Nov. 25, 2005). But ministers seem to come and go, and it is not clear that improvements are forthcoming, or indeed, whether it is possible to make "improvements."

Labour shortages

          The federal government, faced with a record number of retirements, is attempting to address a critical shortage of doctors, human resource specialists, accountants and auditors (Ottawa Citizen, Mar. 26, 2007).

          As long ago as 1998, government-commissioned demographers were already forecasting shortages of workers under the age of 35 might occur in some service sector activities. Their report, Demographic Trends in Canada, 1996-2006: Implications for the Public and Private Sectors, suggested the demographic collapse would have "a substantial impact on the provision of goods and services by the public and private sectors . Canada's government and business leaders must pay greater heed to demographic analysis as they develop policies during the next 10 years and beyond."

Canada facing critical shortage of skilled workers

Epoch Times

January 25, 2007

          Ottawa (Reuters)-Canada is facing a critical shortage of skilled workers, which could damage its prospects for future growth, Human Resources Minister Monte Solberg said on Tuesday.

          The jobless rate is at a 30-year low of 6.1 percent and businesses across the country are clamouring for employees.

          "I think we're way, way behind on labour markets. We just don't have people. We've got all kinds of labour shortages around the country," Solberg told Reuters in an interview.

Skilled trades shortage looms

Metro (Toronto)

February 20, 2007

Workforce will need 1.2 million workers by 2025

          More must be done to make skilled trades "a viable option" for high school students and other young people, says Frank Iacobucci, a former justice for the Supreme Court of Canada who now heads an education think-tank.

 Labour shortage critical

Anne Howland

Toronto Sun

February 20, 2007

Immigration system prevents newcomers from filling the gap

Desperate solutions

          The situation has become so severe, Globe and Mail columnist Doug Saunders actually suggested encouraging the immigration of "a million poor Africans" to this country "to solve our country's immediate economic problems. It would provide a remedy for the future economic and demographic troubles that threaten Canada's current wave of prosperity," he thinks (June 17, 2006).

3. REAL SOLUTIONS

          In the midst of head-in-the-sand solutions to the demographic crisis proferred by our government, business and intellectual leaders, some Canadians -most prominently, those affiliated with the pro-life, pro-family movements in this country - have put forth real paths toward returning Canada to not only a healthy and prosperous state, but a moral one.

          Pope Benedict weighed in on the Canadian situation when he told Canadian bishops in May 2006 that low birth rates in this country are the result of the "pervasive effects of secularism . The attempt to promote a vision of humanity apart from God's transcendent order and indifferent to Christ's beckoning light removes from the reach of ordinary men and women the experience of genuine hope. One of the more dramatic symptoms of this mentality, clearly evident in your own region, is the plummeting birth rate" (Calgary Herald, May 21, 2006).

          The Catholic Organization for Life and Family is encouraging family-friendly policies to encourage fertility. These could include income splitting between spouses, increased parental leave for men and women and baby bonuses. As things stand, the economy does not value the work of parenting, or the experience of raising children, says director Michèle Boulva (Catholic Register, April 1, 2007).

          The COLF board chairman, Bishop Ronald Fabbro, adds that some Canadian families have come to feel so overwhelmed by today's anti-family culture that they are capitulating to it. "The state is stepping in and defining who is a parent," he says. In the face of this, the Church needs to actively respond to help people to an understanding of the deeper meaning of marriage and family, he says (Catholic Register, April 8, 2007).

          Vancouver Province columnist Lydia Lovric laments how "sad" it is that many Canadians currently view children more as a burden than a blessing and hopes couples will reconsider the value of having them. "There is nothing that compares to holding your newborn infant, hearing your baby laugh or getting cuddles and butterfly kisses from your toddler," she writes (Mar. 16, 2007).

          In a March editorial, the National Post downplayed the emphasis on immigration as the solution to our demographic collapse and called for the encouraging of native-born Canadians to have more babies. "Evidence from other countries shows government policies can have some effect . Immigration is keeping our population growing for now. But sooner or later, we're going to have to rely on the fruit of our own Canadian loins" (Mar. 14, 2007).

          "Baby-making needed" read the headline to Licia Corbella's March 16, column in the Calgary Sun. "What we need to stem the grey tsunami about to overtake us is not more immigrants, but more babies" (Mar. 16, 2007).

Halting abortions is an election issue for Canadians.

Catholic Insight's continuing series on "Elections" began in February, 2007 with "Part I: Whom not to vote for" (pp. 19-28 in the print edition), which is available in full at http://catholicinsight.com/online/political/article_702.shtml. The next installment in March, 2007 (pp. 19-26 in the print edition) was "Part II: Where to, Canada?" The April, 2007 installment (pp. 21-30 in the print edition) was "Part III: The future of Canada," an excerpt of which is available at http://catholicinsight.com/online/church/education/article_704.shtml.

As noted, this article is one of two online excerpts from the May, 2007 installment (pp. 11-21 in the print edition) called "Part IV: Is Canada dying?" For the other excerpt, please see http://catholicinsight.com/online/political/article_720.shtml.

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